A.A. Malashonok, M.O. Sinegovsky
All-Russian Research Institute of Soybean Breeding, Ignat’evskoe shosse, 19, Blagoveshchensk, Amurskaya obl., 675027, Russian Federation
Abstract. The article presents the forecast of soybean yield in Amur region based on the analysis of a stochastic model constructed using the Markov’s chains method. A comparison of this prediction method with the extrapolation method based on a linear function and actual data was done. The analysis of the values for the future was carried out for three scenarios of weather conditions development in the region: S1 – favorable, S2 – satisfactory, S3 – unfavorable, which allows to take into account the effect of random factors in the form of weather phenomena and allows to give a more objective forecast of soybean yield. It was revealed that for all probability levels the highest yield will be obtained in 2018, then the yield will decrease for three years, and in 2022 it will grow again. The forecasted yield level under various scenarios for the development of weather conditions in Amur Region allows to assess the potential of soybean production in the region for the coming years, provided that the influence of factors will keep at the same level. The presented forecast of soybean yield in Amur Region for the period of 2018–2022, taking into account the influence of weather and accidental factors, on the basis of modeling allows to build more precise agricultural policy of the region for the future, to plan production volumes of soybean – the main agricultural crop, to identify the channels for marketing the finished products. This approach can also be used to forecast yields and other crops, the results obtained can be used in the management of agricultural production in the region.
Keywords: modeling, forecasting, analysis, productivity, soybean, Amur region, economics, agriculture, Markov’s chains.
Author Details: A.A. Malashonok, research fellow (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); M.O. Sinegovsky, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), head of group.
For citation: Malashonok A.A., Sinegovsky M.O. Simulation and Forecasting of Soybean Yield in Amur Region. Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2017. Vol. 31. No. 8. Pp. 90-92 (in Russ.).