METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH TO FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGROFOOD MARKET OF THE MACROREGION

E.V. Afanasyev¹, N.V. Shalanov¹, T.I. Utenkova¹, E.V. Rudoy², P.M. Fedyaev^3
1Siberian Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, Krasnoobsk, Novosibirsk, 630501, Russian Federation
²Novosibirsk State Agrarian University, ul. Dobrolyubova, 160, Novosibirsk, 630039, Russian Federation
³Kemerovo State Agricultural Institute, ul. Markovtseva 5, Kemerovo, 650056, Russian Federation

Summary. Forecast of the agrofood market is the most difficult kind of such activity, as it includes the spatial aspects of ongoing processes and factors of economic and social development. The forecasting of agrofood market of the region is influenced by different factors, which affect its structure: regional potential, effective demand, prices, the level of the competitiveness of producers, world market environment, etc. Autoregression model is the most appropriate economical and mathematical method of forecasting of agrofood market. The levels of reliability of the models calculated by the Fisher criteria exceed 90%. These models can be used for decision-making and forecasting. It is established the reasons that prevent the development of agrofood market by means of regional grain and dairy production in Siberian Federal District. In the grain branch they are the lack of investment and unpredictable weather; deterioration of crop industry; application of seeds with low sowing qualities; insufficient application of industrial technologies of crop cultivation and insufficient application of mineral fertilizers. In the milk branch they are the reducing of the cattle population; non-compliance with technologies of animal husbandry; insufficient equipment at the farms; high prices for materials and equipment in rural areas in comparison with farm-gate prices on dairy production; deterioration of the previous storage system; the lack of new trading and purchasing environment, and demand brake. The promising development of meat market is possible by the growth of production of poultry and pork. Forecast results demonstrate the current level of development in agrofood market in Siberia. To overcome the negative processes in the agribusiness sectors it is necessary to improve the economic situation due to active government measures.

Keywords: agrofood market, forecast, autoregression model, production, consumption, price, SFD.

Author Details: E.V. Afanasyev, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), leading research fellow; N.V. Shalanov, D. Sc. (Econ.), chief research fellow; T.I. Utenkova, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), leading research fellow; E.V. Rudoy, D. Sc. (Econ.), vice-rector (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); P.M. Fedyaev, assist.

For citation: Afanasyev E.V., Shalanov N.V., Utenkova T.I., Rudoy E.V., Fedyaev P.M. Methodological Approach to Forecasting the Development of Agrofood Market of the Macroregion. Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2016. V.30. No 3. Pp. 5-8 (In Russ.).