FORECAST OF MILK PRODUCTION NN KEMEROVO REGION BASED ON MODEL ANALYSIS

E.V. Rudoi¹, K.A. Artyukh¹, P.M. Fedyaev^2
1Novosibirsk State Agrarian University, ul. Dobrolyubova, 160, Novosibirsk, 630039, Russian Federation
²Kemerovo State Agricultural Institute, ul. Markovtseva, 5, Kemerovo, 650056, Russian Federation

Abstract. The dynamics of milk production in Kemerovo region tends to be regressive from 1995 to 2014. The volumes of production reduced from 614 to 376 thousand tons (38.8 %). This negative situation causes the prerequisites for forecasting milk production. We used two approaches to achieve this purpose: Box-Jenkins model of the ARIMA (p, d, q) type and a trend cyclic model. The building of ARIMA (p, d, q) model consists of several stages. The first stage assumes model identification, d gap order, orders of p autoregression and of moving average q. Values of p and q were defined by means of autocorrelation function and partial autocorrelation function. The second stage is based on the estimation of the model parameters and its quality assessment. The forecast of milk production based on ARIMA (p, d, q) model certifies that milk production in Kemerovo region will reduce to 301,000 tons by 2020. Milk production forecast based on the trend cyclic model assumes an assessment of time series trend and modeling of its cyclic component by means of spectral analysis and cos(omega t) and sin(omega t) functions. The spectral analysis highlights cyclic components of 6.7 years and 4 years. The results of forecasting calculations of the trend cyclic mode show that milk production in Kemerovo region will reduce to 373,000 tons by 2020, but with slower rates and with periods of insignificant growth.

Keywords: forecasting, time series, Box-Jenkins approach, trend-cycle model, milk production dynamics, Kemerovo region.

Author Details: E.V. Rudoi, D. Sc. (Econ.), pro-rector (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); K.A. Artyukh, research fellow; P.M. Fedyaev, assist.

For citation: Rudoi E.V., Artyukh K.A., Fedyaev P.M. Forecast of Milk Production nn Kemerovo Region Based on Model Analysis. Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2017. V. 31. No. 2. Pp. 77-80 (in Russ.).