A.V. Prokudin
Research Institute of Agriculture and Ecology of the Arctic – the branch of Federal Research Center “Krasnoyarsk Scientific Center of the SB of the RAS”, ul. Komsomol’skaya, 1, Noril’sk, Krasnoyarskii krai, 663301, Russian Federation
Abstract. A brief review of modern scientific theories on the epidemic and epizootic process was conducted with the aim of developing theoretical bases for prediction and epizootic supervision of infectious diseases of animals under conditions of the arctic zone on the example of the Taimyr peninsula. The following diseases pose a threat to the epizootic and epidemiological well-being of the territory: anthrax (on the territory of the peninsula there are 39 sites where there were previously epizootics in reindeer); brucellosis (previously the incidence of domestic reindeer reached 40 %, the causative agent is circulating in the wild fauna of the region); necrobacillosis (annually up to 30 % of the total number of domestic reindeer fall ill of it); rabies (the unsuccessful territory of the peninsula is caused by the functioning of the arctic Asian natural focal region of rabies); influenza A (the abundance of migratory birds in the spring-autumn period, antibodies to certain subtypes of the virus are constantly detected). The theoretical foundations and results of constructing logical-linguistic models in the corresponding factor spaces are presented to estimate the probability of occurrence of outbreaks of anthrax in Taimyr and influenza A in wild birds of the peninsula. With all conditions favorable for the development of the epizootic process and the absence of preventive measures, the probability of occurrence of anthrax in the territory is high (81.25 %), and minimal preventive measures reduce the risk of epizootic up to 46.83 %. Analysis of the probability model for the occurrence of an influenza A epizootic showed that under favorable conditions the probability of occurrence of the disease is 80 %, and at the maximum impact of negative factors for the virus, the probability is 6.67 % in the range of “average/above average” and 73.3 % within the limit “average”. On the territory of Taymyr peninsula, there is a real danger of occurrence or activation of old natural foci of infectious diseases in the populations of domestic and wild animals. It is presented a list of measures, which are necessary for the control of epizootic processes of natural-focal diseases.
Keywords: epizootological monitoring, epizootic process, Taymyr, infections, epizootic forecasting.
Author Details: EA.V. Prokudin, Cand. Sc. (Vet.), head of laboratory (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.).
For citation: Prokudin A.V. Infectious Diseases of Fauna under Conditions of the Arctic Zone: Theoretical Foundations for Prediction and Epizootological Supervision (on the Example of the Taymyr Peninsula). Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2017. Vol. 31. No. 9. Pp. 55-59 (in Russ.).