FORECASTING OF DISTRIBUTION OF WEED COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTH URAL ON THE BASE OF CLIMATIC MODELING

G. R. Khasanova¹, S. M. Yamalov², M. V. Lebedeva², Kh. M. Safin^3
1Bashkiria State Agrarian University, ul. 50-letya Octyabrya, 34, Ufa, 450001, Russian Federation
²South-Ural Botanical Garden-Institute – autonomous structural subdivision of the Ufa Federal Research Center of the RAS, ul. Mendeleeva, 195, k. 5, Ufa, 450080, Russian Federation
³Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Bashkortostan, ul. Kirova, 15, Ufa, 450008, Russian Federation

Abstract. Forecasting of dynamics of species composition, structure and spatial distribution of plant communities under the influence of climate change plays an important role in the design of perspective plans of economy branches development for the specific territories. The floristic composition of segetal communities has important practical value. It is the defining criterion for the choice of ways of weed control. The authors set the object to estimate the potential spatial distribution of various types of segetal communities in the South Ural with the application of methods of bioclimatic modeling and to forecast its dynamics in the case of the moderate climate change. The work is based on 665 geobotanical descriptions of segetal communities of winter, spring and row crops on the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan and Orenburg region. It is demonstrated that weed communities, presented by three types: mesophytic, xeromesophytic and xerophytic, differ well by the species composition, species wealth and the structure of agrobiological groups. Prognostic maps of distribution, generated with application of Maxent algorithm on the basis of the analysis of 19 bioclimatic variables, showed the presence of potentially acceptable habitats in the different regions of the Urals and the Volga region for all studied types of segetal communities. Mesophytic type of communities is characterized by the broadest area, which covers the Republic of Bashkortostan, Perm Krai, Udmurtia, the Republic of Tatarstan, a part of Kirov region. Formation of areas is influenced by both temperature variables and moistening parameters. The leading factor is the seasonality of temperatures. An assessment of the area dynamics with climate change in the future shows that only the first, mesophytic type of weed-field communities will expand its range by 2080 due to a significant shift in the northern boundary. On the contrary, xerophytic communities of the steppe zone of the South Urals will reduce the area of distribution according to faster shift of the southern border in comparison with the northern one. It will lead to the fact that their habitats in the territory of the Republic of Bashkortostan and Orenburg region could be occupied with more southern, drought-resistant types of weed communities, now extended on the territory of Kazakhstan.

Keywords: weed communities; climate change; climatic factors; bioclimatic area.

Author Details: G.R. Khasanova, Cand. Sc. (biol.), assoc. prof.; S. M. Yamalov, D. Sc. (biol.), leading research fellow (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); M. V. Lebedeva, Cand. Sc. (biol.), senior research fellow; Kh. M. Safin, D. Sc. (Agr.), Academician-Secretary.

For citation: Khasanova G. R., Yamalov S. M., Lebedeva M. V., Safin Kh. M. Forecasting of Distribution of Weed Communities in the South Ural on the Base of Climatic Modeling. Dostizheniya nauki I tekhniki APK. 2018. Vol. 32. No. 9. Pp. 17–20 (in Russ.). DOI: 10.24411/0235-2451-2018-10904.