D. V. Dubovik, Yu. P. Sukhanovskii, L. B. Nitchenko, A. V. Prushchik
Kursk Federal Agrarian Scientific Center, ul. Karla Marksa, 70 b, Kursk, 305021, Russian Federation
Abstract. The studies were aimed at developing a method for estimating the expected yield according to short-term field experiments. For this, we analyzed multi-year yields of 1987–2000 in a multifactor field experiment (MFE) and multi-year yields of 2003–2018 in a scientific production experiment (SPE). The experiments were conducted at the Kursk Federal Agrarian Scientific Center. The soil was typical chernozem. In the MFE, the studies were carried out in a four-field crop rotation (bare fallow, winter wheat, sugar beet, barley) without fertilizers. In the SPE we studied basic and intensive technologies. The first implied crop cultivation in a five-field crop rotation (bare fallow, winter wheat, sugar beet, buckwheat, barley). The main difference of intensive technology from the basic one lied in replacing bare fallow with green manured one and doubling of mineral fertilizers doses. The application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov criterion at a significance level of 5% confirmed the accepted hypothesis that changes in the yield of each crop for each technology are subject to the truncated normal probability distribution. Multi-year datasets on the same crops (analogues) made it possible to reduce the duration of testing agricultural cultivation technologies. At the same time, the distance between the analogue site and the test site should provide the same change in weather conditions over time. Calculations were carried out using the coefficient K = Y/Y5, where Y was the average yield for n years and Y5 was the average yield for 5 years. Calculations carried out for all the rotation crops showed that when using the developed method the average error amounts to 3.7%. Its application also made it possible to evaluate the yield error and the risk of non-receipt of the expected yield, as well as to predict humus reserves.
Keywords: field experiments; duration; yield assessment; error reduction; risk assessment.
Author Details: D. V. Dubovik, D. Sc. (Agr.), acting director; Yu. P. Sukhanovskii, D. Sc. (Agr.), leading research fellow (е-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); L. B. Nitchenko, Cand.Sc. (Agr.), senior research fellow; A. V. Prushchik, Cand.Sc. (Agr.), senior research fellow.
For citation: Dubovik D. V., Sukhanovskii Yu. P., Nitchenko L. B., Prushchik A. V. Estimation of the Expected Yield According to the Data from Short-Term Field Experiments. Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2019. Vol. 33. № 8. Pp. 5–9 (in Russ.). DOI: 10.24411/0235-2451-2019-10801.