A. M. Kovalenko1, A. V. Tkachev1, O. L. Tkacheva1, V. M. Kononov1, T. V. Zubova2, V. A. Pleshkov2, O. V. Smolovskaya2, L. V. Nefediev
1Belgorod State Agrarian University, ul. Vavilova, 3, pos. Maiskii, Belgorodskii r-n, Belgorodskaya obl., 308503, Russian Federation
2Kuzbass State Agricultural Academy, ul. Markovtseva, 5, Kemerovo, 650056, Russian Federation
3CenterProgramSystem, ul. Vostochnaya, 71, ofis 501, Belgorod, 308019, Russian Federation
Abstract. The purpose of the study was to develop software for calculating the probability of the spread of African swine fever (ASF) to noninfected farms. To determine the probability of infection transmission, it was proposed to use the formula P = Rasf • A(N+Y) • 100, where P is the probability of ASF transfer from the threatened pig farm to a noninfected pig farm; Rasf is an integrated risk factor that includes factors and mechanisms of ASF transmission; A(N+Y) is a factor of potential and actual threats, taking into account the influence of the number of noninfected pig farms within a radius of 5 km from the target pig farm. We developed Calculation and Modelling software modules, which allowed determining the probability of infection transmission to noninfected farms, as well as to predict the development of an epizootic situation in time and space. The Calculation module determines the probability of ASF transmission from infected farms to other pig farms based on the factors involved in the transmission of the pathogen and maintenance of the epizootic chain. In this module, the probability value for a noninfected pig farm for any date is calculated taking into account the conditions for assigning points to each factor. The probability can be determined in two modes: for all pig farms in a region or a selected pig farm. The Modelling module allows for the forecasting of the situation according to ASF, when the user “appoints” an outbreak of infection on the selected pig farm on the corresponding date. The forecast can be made for any date in two modes: for all pig farms or one selected target pig farm. The proposed modules can be used both by government agencies of the agro-industrial complex in the Russian regions and by managers and veterinary specialists on individual farms. The developed software was tested on the example of the pig farm in the Shebekinsky district of the Belgorod region during ASF outbreaks.
Keywords: African swine fever; epizootic situation; mathematical model; probability of occurrence; Belgorod region.
Author Details: A. M. Kovalenko, D. Sc. (Vet.), prof.; A. V. Tkachev, D. Sc. (Agr.), prof.; O. L. Tkacheva, Cand. Sc. (Agr.), assoc. prof.; V. M. Kononov, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), senior lecturer; T. V. Zubova, D. Sc. (Biol.), prof.; V. A. Pleshkov, Cand. Sc. (Agr.), assoc. prof.; O. V. Smolovskaya, Cand. Sc. (Biol.), assoc. prof.; L. V. Nefediev, deputy general director.
For citation: Kovalenko A. M., Tkachev A. V., Tkacheva O. L., Kononov V. M., Zubova T. V., Pleshkov V. A., Smolovskaya O. V., Nefediev L. V. Calculation of the Probability of African Swine Fever Spreading. Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2019. Vol. 33. No. 12. Pp. 90–94 (in Russ.). DOI: 10.24411/0235-2451-2019-11219.