S. O. Siptits, I. A. Romanenko, I. A. Ganieva, N. E. Evdokimova
Nikonov All-Russian Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics, Federal Scientific Center of Agrarian Economics and Social Development of Rural Territories, All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, B. Khariton’evskii per., 21, str. 1, Moskva, 107078, Russian Federation
Abstract. The purpose of the studies was to determine the features of mathematical modelling methods and scenario analysis in assessing the impact of long-term climate changes on regional agri-food systems (AFS). As a methodological basis, we used methods of system analysis, according to which AFS of different levels are considered as economic objects that interact with the external environment, in which the soil-climatic component is distinguished. Modelling such systems implies an integrated approach. Integrated modelling refers to an interdisciplinary analysis that takes into account the interaction between human and natural systems. Such relationships are usually complex, dynamic, and non-linear. Models differ by the presence or absence of control measures, the level of geographical, economic, and technological disaggregation, the degree of elaboration of climatic impacts, economic assumptions, forecast horizons, interpretations of uncertainties, the subjects’ responses to climate change policies within the framework of the model, etc. In our study, when developing models, the AFS reaction was considered as a behavioural characteristic of entities engaged in the production and consumption of food. The developed classification of forecast scenarios for the development of AFS as the key scenario characteristics considered the following indicators: climatic, macroeconomic, financial, and social stability, as well as the sustainability of the reproduction of the main types of resources. The environmental aspect was taken into account in the form of analysis and prediction of soil fertility reproduction. The population demand for food was considered as a system-forming factor, which is proposed to be assessed in terms of the degree of influence of population incomes on it. To determine the state and forecast the development of AFS, we developed a functional module that implements the following analytical capabilities: analysis of the technological efficiency of using hydrothermal conditions in crop production, analysis of effects from production specialization, analysis of consumer behaviour, etc.
Keywords: mathematical model; agri-food system; climate scenario; forecasting; agricultural policy.
Author Details: S. O. Siptits, D. Sc. (Econ.), head of division (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); I. A. Romanenko, D. Sc. (Econ.), chief research fellow (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); I. A. Ganieva, D. Sc. (Econ.), chief research fellow (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); N. E. Evdokimova, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), leading research fellow (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.).
For citation: Siptits SO, Romanenko IA, Ganieva IA, et al. [Features of modelling and scenario analysis of long-term climatic changes impact on the agri-food systems of regions]. Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2020;34(4):5-9. Russian. doi: 10.24411/0235-2451-2020-10401.