K. G. Borodin
Nikonov All-Russian Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics, Federal Scientific Center of Agrarian Economics and Social Development of Rural Territories, All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, B. Khariton’evskii per., 21, str. 1, Moskva, 107078, Russian Federation
Abstract. The purpose of the study was to analyze the main trends in the development of the global and Russian meat markets. The Russian producers of poultry meat and pork continue to increase output. However, the markets are already saturated, and the country’s needs for these types of meat are practically satisfied. The growth of Russian production of meat and meat products to some extent was stimulated by the introduction of sanctions and the subsequent food embargo. Since the main type of meat products, which is in predominant demand both in the world and Russian markets, is poultry meat, our study was focused precisely on this market. Relatively low prices contribute to the predominant demand for poultry meat, which stimulates the growth of its production. We developed a regression model to assess the factors of demand for Russian poultry meat. To evaluate the cointegration vector, which characterizes the long-term relationships between variables, we used the DOLS procedure. The most important factor for consumer demand for poultry is the price. A 1% increase in producer prices leads to a 0.83% decrease in demand. A 1% growth in population incomes contributes to an increase of 0.32%. The increase in import prices also stimulates demand for Russian products by 0.29%. The growth of the pressure of sanctions on Russia by 1% in the future will contribute to an increase in demand for Russian domestic products by 0.19%.
Keywords: meat market; sanctions; consumer demand; poultry; DOLS cointegration regression; assessment of demand factors.
Author Details: K. G. Borodin, D. Sc. (Econ.), head of division (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.).
For citation: Borodin KG. [The main trends in the development of the Russian meat market: analysis of demand factors]. Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2020;34(4):10-4. Russian. doi: 10.24411/0235-2451-2020-10402.