Management methodology for sustainable agricultural development under conditions of soil degradation and climate change

A. S. Strokov¹, O. A. Makarov^2,3, E. V. Tsvetnov^2,4, D. R. Abdulkhanova², V. N. Kudelin², N. A. Marakhova^2
1Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, prosp. Vernadskogo, 82, str. 1, Moskva, 119571, Russian Federation
²Lomonosov Moscow State University, Leninskie gory, 1, str. 12, Moskva, 119991, Russian Federation
³Educational-Experimental Soil and Environmental Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University, pos. Chashnikovo, p/o Udarnyi, Solnechnogorskii r-n, Moskovskaya obl., 141592, Russian Federation
⁴Eurasian Center for Food Security (MSU Agrarian Center), Leninskie gory, 1, str. 12, Moskva, 119991, Russian Federation

Abstract. The purpose of the study was to develop a methodology for managing sustainable agricultural development in two chernozem regions (Belgorod and Lipetsk regions) under conditions of soil degradation and climate change. At the first stage of the research, based on the results of a continuous agrochemical survey, soil erosion assessment, and analysis of climate indicators presented on the sites of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), Climate Data Online and the University of Berkeley, we compiled extensive databases including soil-climatic and economic data on agricultural enterprises and municipal areas. Then, using the modified Cobb-Douglas function, we developed dynamic econometric regression models. According to the calculations, in the Belgorod region, the most stable results on statistically significant elasticity coefficients of the indicators of the arable soil state were characteristic for the content of organic matter, mobile phosphorus and potassium. Their increase, as a rule, positively affects the output of feed units, the yield of winter wheat and sugar beets. In the Lipetsk region, they were characteristic of the content of mobile potassium. The increase in mobile potassium concentration contributes to increased productivity of feed units and revenue from agricultural activities. The most sensitive factor with the highest coefficient in the regression equations for both regions was air temperature with positive values for the Belgorod region and negative values for the Lipetsk region. The final stage of calculations was the medium-term forecasting of changes in cultivation area, gross harvest, productivity, and cost of gross output of the main crops in the regions by 2050, compared with 2010, using IMPACT-3 economic-climatic model. According to the results of the analysis of forecast values, the management of sustainable agricultural development in the studied chernozem regions consists not only in soil protection measures but also in the adjustment of the economic indicators of their agricultural development related to soil degradation and possible climate change.

Keywords: sustainable agriculture; climate change; soil degradation; soil indicators; econometric models; food security.

Author Details: A. S. Strokov, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), leading research fellow (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); O. A. Makarov, D. Sc. (Biol.), head of department (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); E. V. Tsvetnov, Cand. Sc. (Biol.), senior research fellow (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); D. R. Abdulkhanova, junior research fellow (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); V. N. Kudelin, post graduate student (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); N. A. Marakhova, post graduate student (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.).

For citation: Strokov AS, Makarov OA, Tsvetnov EV, et al. [Management methodology for sustainable agricultural development under conditions of soil degradation and climate change]. Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2020;34(5):82-7. Russian. doi: 10.24411/0235-2451-2020-10517.