A.V. Belokopytov, A.A. Kutuzova
Smolensk State Agricultural Academy, B. Soviet str., 10/2, Smolensk, 214000, Russia
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Summary. The population of Smolensk region reduced by rapid rates and according to forecasts it will decrease by 10.5 % and amount 866 thousand people by 2030. Rates of reduction in the number of rural population are more intensive. All this is negatively reflected in reproduction of labor resources. Therefore there is a need for determination of future potential of labor resources and for development of practical recommendations regarding an improvement in the demographic situation in the rural areas of the region. We developed the method of estimation of the total rural population and labor resources in agriculture of the region until 2025 by correlative and regression analysis and extrapolation method. The obtained forecasts of population are quite close to the data of the Local Office of Federal State Statistics Service in Smolensk region (deviations are not more than 0.5 %). Therefore in forecasting of labor resources of agriculture in the region we used an exponential curve, characterized by the best parameters of the reliability of the model. According to the results of prognostication, an unfavorable demographic trend will remain in Smolensk region. To 2015 the population of the region will reduce by 6.1 % in comparison with 2014 and will amount 909052 people; rural population will reduce by 4.8 % (to 257807 people); labor resources of rural area will decrease by 8.0 % (to 142052 people). Among the measures for the solution of this problem we can listed the increase in the number of all measures for an improvement in the demographic situation in the region and supplement of current region state programs on activation of population reproduction in Smolensk region with such actions as popularization of having many children, an improvement in the health of population, the development of the program on reduction and elimination of unemployment, strengthening the attraction of rural life style, constant monitoring and the checking of demographic situation in the rural area.
Keywords: labor resources, reproduction of labor resources, demographic situation in the region, population, demographic processes, demographic forecasting, correlation and regression analysis, extrapolation method, country people at working age.
Author Details: A.V. Belokopytov, Dr. Sc. (Econ.), Prof.; A.A. Kutuzova, Post-graduate student (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.).
For citation: Belokopytov A.V., Kutuzova A.A. Reproduction of labor resources in agriculture in Smolensk region. Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2015. T.29. №4. pp. 12-14 (In Russ)