V.Е. Tikhonov, А.А. Neverov
Orenburg Research Institute of Agriculture, prosp. Gagarina, 27/1, Orenburg, 460051, Russian Federation
Abstract. A new method of long-term yield forecast is proposed on the example of spring wheat. A close relationship was established between the long-term dynamics of spring wheat yield and variations in the distance from the barycenter of the Solar System to the Earth in time, which makes it possible to use the predictor values beyond the available crop yield. For the first time in forecasting time-series of yield, lag variables were used, their effect on indicators, characterizing the process, is not immediately apparent, but with a delay. We forecast the productivity of spring wheat, taking into account the great role of heat, stored in the World Ocean, in time delays of weather and climate. The forecast (advance time is one year) of spring wheat yield in Saraktash district of Orenburg region for 2016 was fully justified: the forecast was 1.15 t/ha, in fact, it was 1.14 t/ha. Methodological bases for long-term forecasting of drought (advance time is 5-6 months), time of its occurrence, intensity and duration in the steppe of Cis-Urals were developed. On this basis, a virtually accurate description of the expected in Buzuluk district of Orenburg region drought in 2015 was obtained: the drought began to form in the autumn of 2014 and continued throughout April, May and June 2015. The methods of stepwise multiple regression and regression in neural networks were applied, as well as the method of residual deviations in combination with the method of superposition of epochs were used. For the first time, based on the developed model, a long-term forecast for the previous year was carried out both for the value of the predicant and for the values of all the predictors included in the model.
Keywords: forecast, yield, barycenter of the Solar system, lag variables.
Author Details: V.Е. Tikhonov, D. Sc. (Geogr.), chief research fellow; А.А. Neverov, Cand. Sc. (Agr.), leading research fellow (е-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.).
For citation: Tikhonov V.Е., Neverov А.А. Long-Term Forecast of Crop Yield on the Basis of Fundamental Cycling of Solar-Planet Relations. Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2017. Vol. 31. No. 4. Pp. 62-67 (in Russ.).