METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO FORECASTING THE TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF PLANT PRODUCTION

E.V. Rudoi¹, S.V. Ryumkin¹, M.S. Petukhova¹, A.Yu. Andronov¹, S.L. Bykova¹, O.M. Potseluev², S.Yu. Kapustyanchik^2
1Novosibirsk State Agrarian University, ul. Dobrolyubova, 160, Novosibirsk, 630039, Russian Federation
²Siberian Research Institute of Plant Growing and Breeding – the branch of the Federal Research Center the Institution of Cytology and Genetics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. S-100, zd. 21, a/ya 375, pos. Krasnoobsk, Novosibirskii r-n, Novosibirskaya obl., 630501, Russian Federation

Abstract. The key element of strategic planning in agro-industrial complex, particularly in plant production, is forecasting of scientific and technological development. Long-term technological forecasting should apply the wide range of Foresight instruments. At the first stage of forecasting, the expert basis is built by means of automatic and manual methods. As a result of our work, we formed the base of an expert network, which includes 202 experts, including 74 experts in plant production, 78 seed-breeding experts (including breeding and seed studies) and 50 experts in organic farming (including resource-saving technologies, application of humates, biological preparations, etc.). The analysis of patent activity for achievements during 2005–2017 determined the most proficient institutions in the sphere of breeding and seed breeding of crops. The paper highlights the global challenges that influence plant production development. In the long term, until 2030, we can expect the preservation of global socio-economic and scientific-technological challenges. The article outlines the world tendencies in plant production, seed breeding and organic farming in the nearest 10–15 years; they are pre-sowing protection of planting material, soil fertility increasing and preventing impoverishment of soils by means of reducing chemical burden and rehabilitation of soil microbiota. All promising technologies in plant production would be aimed at production greening and reducing of waste. The authors summarized and generalized the information and data and defined the key research in foreign institutions-centers of excellence in the sphere of plant production, seed breeding, and organic farming.

Keywords: challenges; scientific and technological development; priorities; plant production; tendencies; prospective technologies; centers of excellence.

Author Details: E.V. Rudoi, D. Sc. (Econ.), deputy rector (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); S.V. Ryumkin, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), assoc. prof.; M.S. Petukhova, research fellow; A.Yu. Andronov, senior lecturer; S.L. Bykova, Cand. Sc. (Biol.), assoc. prof.; O.M. Potseluev, Cand. Sc. (Agr.), senior research fellow; S.Yu. Kapustyanchik, Cand. Sc. (Biol.), senior research fellow.

For citation: Rudoi E.V., Ryumkin S.V., Petukhova M.S., Andronov A.Yu., Bykova S.L., Potseluev O.M., Kapustyanchik S.Yu. Methodological Approaches to Forecasting the Technological Development of Plant Production. Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2017. Vol. 31. No. 10. Pp. 8-17 (in Russ.).