S. O. Siptits, I. A. Romanenko, N. E. Evdokimova
Nikonov All-Russian Institute of Agrarian Problems and Informatics, Federal Scientific Center of Agrarian Economics and Social Development of Rural Territories, All-Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economics, B. Khariton’evskii per., 21, str. 1, Moskva, 107078, Russian Federation
Abstract. The purpose of the study was to determine the possibilities of using cognitive modelling methods to assess the impact of climatic dynamics on the food provision of the region. The article describes the procedure and results of modelling the socio-economic development of the agri-food system (AFS) in the form of a weighted digraph containing 36 vertices and 185 edges. Each vertex of the graph is a concept, the state of which can change under the influence of signals coming from other vertices interacting with this vertex. The influence of the external environment in the model is realized by applying impulses that simulate uncontrollable (climate) or managing (irrigation system design) effects. The response of the cognitive model consists of the propagation of disturbances along with the graph, as a result of which the states of its vertices change. This makes it possible to analyze the response of the agri-food system to the conditions of the corresponding scenario. The combination of the possible properties of the AFS and its environment generates a space of high-dimensional scenarios (10368 development options), therefore, the paper considers and analyzes a “contrasting” development option, which makes it possible to systematically comprehend the development of emergencies with food production on a regional scale. A scenario is modelled when an initially arid region with poorly developed water reclamation experiences an increase in aridization. This causes a drop in the yield of crops, instable economic and financial results of commodity producers, a low return on investment in agriculture, leading to its complete cessation and a steadily growing shortage in domestic food production. The scenario of water reclamation development, which eliminates the listed problems, is considered as a strategy for adapting the AFS of the region to unfavourable climate changes. An increase in crop yields on irrigated lands makes the production of these crops profitable, whereas agriculture becomes attractive to investors, which is reflected in the growth of investments. The economic and financial indicators of enterprises producing agricultural products are steadily increasing; food self-sufficiency deficit is being eliminated.
Keywords: forecasting; agricultural policy; agri-food system; long-term climate change; cognitive modelling; solution stability.
Author Details: S. O. Siptits, D. Sc. (Econ.), head of division (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); I. A. Romanenko, D. Sc. (Econ.), chief research fellow (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.); N. E. Evdokimova, Cand. Sc. (Econ.), leading research fellow (e-mail: Этот адрес электронной почты защищён от спам-ботов. У вас должен быть включен JavaScript для просмотра.).
For citation: Siptits SO, Romanenko IA, Evdokimova NE. [Cognitive model for assessing the impact of climate dynamics on the food provision of the region]. Dostizheniya nauki i tekhniki APK. 2020;34(9):106-11. Russian. doi: 10.24411/0235-2451-2020-10918.